Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

31.64 – 0

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.7 ±15.6

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 0.57Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 22.07Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 9Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.2 ±17

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX -5.16Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 5.8Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX -14.79Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5253, 2472, 5232

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5253, 2472, 5232

Auto

6.3 18%

Teleop

-3.2 0%

Endgame

31.1 91%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5278, 2129, 10474

/ 100 compat

Projected

-14.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5278, 2129, 10474

Auto

6.2 0%

Teleop

-10.5 81%

Endgame

-8.6 67%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.6pts

Blue projected score-14.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: -16–48
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 86.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.7Season APEX162.2

6.3Auto6.2

-3.2Teleop-10.5

31.1Endgame-8.6

121Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	16
teleop	38	7
endgame	20	13
foul	0	0
total	85	36

Result

Final score

85 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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