Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
36.08 – 142.28
21%79%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
198 – 60
Prediction missed · off by 122.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.4 ±12.8
Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -14.41Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 35.33Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 15.16Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±13.5
Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 16.62Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 37.97Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 87.69Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3610, 2052, 2177
27
/ 100 compatProjected
36.1 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 3610, 2052, 2177
Auto
19.5 50%
Teleop
21.4 55%
Endgame
-2.1 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4230, 1622, 2855
74
/ 100 compatProjected
142.3 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 4230, 1622, 2855
Auto
14.2 10%
Teleop
100.2 71%
Endgame
25.8 18%
Strengths
- · 2855 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.85
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score36.1pts
Blue projected score142.3pts
Red win probability21%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 30%, blue 23%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -106.2
- Score range
- 21–157
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
398.4Season APEX249.8
19.5Auto14.2
21.4Teleop100.2
-2.1Endgame25.8
76Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 45 | 27 |
| teleop | 129 | 23 |
| endgame | 24 | 10 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 198 | 60 |
Result
Final score
198 – 60
Prediction missed · off by 122.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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