Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.58 – 95.45

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.2 ±15.7

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 23.96Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 1.15Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 27.47Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.8 ±15.6

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 87.21Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 23.9Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -15.66Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5275, 6047, 10711

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5275, 6047, 10711

Auto

18.2 47%

Teleop

0.2 1%

Endgame

20.3 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2491, 6132, 2227

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2491, 6132, 2227

Auto

17.9 18%

Teleop

75.8 75%

Endgame

6.9 7%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.6pts

Blue projected score95.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.9
Score range: 37–111
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 86.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.2Season APEX330.8

18.2Auto17.9

0.2Teleop75.8

20.3Endgame6.9

77Consistency214

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	18
teleop	14	4
endgame	8	15
foul	0	0
total	48	37

Result

Final score

48 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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