Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.88 – 104.01

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.7 ±13.9

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 74.98Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX -3.55Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 62.45Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.8 ±15.7

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 39.96Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 7.89Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 56.16Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6045, 4623, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6045, 4623, 5913

Auto

29.4 23%

Teleop

74.4 58%

Endgame

23.4 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2512, 3212, 4687

/ 100 compat

Projected

104 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2512, 3212, 4687

Auto

13.8 14%

Teleop

72.6 71%

Endgame

15.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.9pts

Blue projected score104pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.9
Score range: 89–149
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 85.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.7Season APEX200.8

29.4Auto13.8

74.4Teleop72.6

23.4Endgame15.8

62Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	16
teleop	112	11
endgame	19	28
foul	0	0
total	177	55

Result

Final score

177 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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