Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.46 – 0

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±16

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 47.63Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 47.4Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX -1.57Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±14.6

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -16.38Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 3.18Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -13.41Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11292, 4181, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11292, 4181, 4226

Auto

38.3 44%

Teleop

35.5 41%

Endgame

12.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8122, 7041, 2500

/ 100 compat

Projected

-26.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8122, 7041, 2500

Auto

15.1 0%

Teleop

-41.2 100%

Endgame

2.4 0%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.5pts

Blue projected score-26.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.5
Score range: -16–109
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 86.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.4Season APEX160.7

38.3Auto15.1

35.5Teleop-41.2

12.6Endgame2.4

72Consistency226

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	17	22
endgame	17	11
foul	0	0
total	50	51

Result

Final score

50 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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