Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.06 – 79.04

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

25 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.8 ±17

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 27.17Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 18.26Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 0.63Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.2 ±18

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 27.97Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 37.12Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX 13.95Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5720, 4230, 3610

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5720, 4230, 3610

Auto

13.1 31%

Teleop

23.9 57%

Endgame

5.2 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5253, 2052, 10474

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5253, 2052, 10474

Auto

19.4 24%

Teleop

48.2 60%

Endgame

12.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.1pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33
Score range: 30–95
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 47 vs event baseline 90.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.8Season APEX324.2

13.1Auto19.4

23.9Teleop48.2

5.2Endgame12.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	11
teleop	13	11
endgame	7	0
foul	0	0
total	25	22

Result

Final score

25 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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