Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 93.86

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.5 ±15.8

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX -6.31Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 7.6Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -4.74Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314 ±15.4

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX -1.81Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 52.7Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 42.97Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4623, 3298, 2227

/ 100 compat

Projected

-3.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4623, 3298, 2227

Auto

16.2 100%

Teleop

-15.8 0%

Endgame

9.1 96%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3212, 5913, 6758

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3212, 5913, 6758

Auto

10.9 11%

Teleop

57.3 58%

Endgame

31.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-3.4pts

Blue projected score93.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.9
Score range: -16–110
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 87.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.5Season APEX314

16.2Auto10.9

-15.8Teleop57.3

9.1Endgame31.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	22
teleop	1	69
endgame	0	33
foul	0	0
total	16	124

Result

Final score

16 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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