Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.24 – 59.22

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.9 ±12.8

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 10.02Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 28.91Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 52.31Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±16.2

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 5.33Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 42.24Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 11.65Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 4181, 4687

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 4181, 4687

Auto

17.1 19%

Teleop

57.6 64%

Endgame

15.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5275, 6045, 11292

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5275, 6045, 11292

Auto

20.3 35%

Teleop

31.6 55%

Endgame

5.7 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.2pts

Blue projected score59.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32
Score range: 44–106
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.9Season APEX367.7

17.1Auto20.3

57.6Teleop31.6

15Endgame5.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	46
teleop	41	71
endgame	39	26
foul	0	40
total	121	183

Result

Final score

121 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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