Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.41 – 95.1

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

57 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.9 ±12.2

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 108.41Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX -1.49Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 14.49Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.3 ±14.6

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 17.62Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 65.32Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 12.16Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2855, 2169, 8122

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2855, 2169, 8122

Auto

13.0 11%

Teleop

78.6 64%

Endgame

30.5 25%

Strengths

· 2855 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3008, 9532, 2500

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3008, 9532, 2500

Auto

18.2 19%

Teleop

48.5 51%

Endgame

28.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.4pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.3
Score range: 80–136
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 85.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.9Season APEX220.3

13Auto18.2

78.6Teleop48.5

30.5Endgame28.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	21	11
endgame	21	15
foul	0	0
total	57	38

Result

Final score

57 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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