Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.84 – 84.64

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

39 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.5 ±13.6

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 6.49Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 16.31Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 83.04Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.9 ±16.6

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 10.16Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 24.25Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 50.23Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2239, 7041, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 7041, 1622

Auto

30.0 29%

Teleop

64.1 61%

Endgame

11.0 10%

Strengths

· 1622 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4226, 6132, 2512

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 6132, 2512

Auto

18.2 22%

Teleop

36.0 43%

Endgame

29.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.8pts

Blue projected score84.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.2
Score range: 69–122
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 67 vs event baseline 89.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.5Season APEX174.9

30Auto18.2

64.1Teleop36

11Endgame29.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	14	11
endgame	8	1
foul	0	0
total	39	28

Result

Final score

39 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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