Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.37 – 57.79

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±14.5

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 27.36Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 9.04Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 37.97Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±13.5

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 9.04Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 21.39Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 27.36Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5278, 2177, 10711

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5278, 2177, 10711

Auto

14.8 20%

Teleop

44.4 60%

Endgame

14.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4230, 2574, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4230, 2574, 2052

Auto

17.7 31%

Teleop

28.1 49%

Endgame

11.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score57.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.6
Score range: 42–90
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 87.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.8Season APEX397

14.8Auto17.7

44.4Teleop28.1

14.2Endgame11.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	42
teleop	35	92
endgame	8	17
foul	0	15
total	52	166

Result

Final score

52 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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