Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.03 – 133.42

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.6 ±15.6

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX 10.99Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 56.42Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 74.62Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.1 ±13.5

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 44.57Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 14.23Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 74.62Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10474, 6907, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10474, 6907, 2855

Auto

36.1 25%

Teleop

70.2 49%

Endgame

36.5 26%

Strengths

· 2855 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3298, 5275, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3298, 5275, 5913

Auto

13.4 10%

Teleop

77.2 59%

Endgame

39.7 30%

Strengths

· 5913 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.6
Score range: 118–157
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 82.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.6Season APEX380.1

36.1Auto13.4

70.2Teleop77.2

36.5Endgame39.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	38
teleop	159	9
endgame	46	34
foul	0	0
total	255	81

Result

Final score

255 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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