Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.09 – 42.24

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.9 ±12.7

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 16.28Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 50.55Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 18.26Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.7 ±16

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 19.15Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 14.13Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 8.96Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2574, 8122, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2574, 8122, 4226

Auto

14.5 17%

Teleop

45.4 55%

Endgame

23.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2502, 2239, 5253

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2502, 2239, 5253

Auto

11.1 26%

Teleop

22.9 54%

Endgame

8.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score42.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.9
Score range: 23–104
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 108.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.9Season APEX197.7

14.5Auto11.1

45.4Teleop22.9

23.3Endgame8.8

4Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	34	34
endgame	26	5
foul	0	0
total	75	54

Result

Final score

75 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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