Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.64 – 244.1

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.9 ±13.1

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 43.21Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 128.32Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 152.11Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.5 ±10.4

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 14.41Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 114.12Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 115.57Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9532, 2052, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9532, 2052, 6907

Auto

79.2 25%

Teleop

167.9 54%

Endgame

64.4 21%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2169, 5913, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 5913, 2491

Auto

47.0 20%

Teleop

134.2 57%

Endgame

54.0 23%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score323.6pts

Blue projected score244.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.5
Score range: 225–343
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 106.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.9Season APEX615.5

79.2Auto47

167.9Teleop134.2

64.4Endgame54

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	68
teleop	70	22
endgame	37	8
foul	50	35
total	230	133

Result

Final score

230 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 pts

Match videos

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