Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.54 – 226.58

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 128.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.8 ±9.9

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 183.65Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 48.3Rank 20Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 187.59Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 674.6 ±9.3

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 70.36Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 57.55Rank 31Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 98.67Rank 12Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 6081, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8280, 6081, 3641

Auto

76.5 18%

Teleop

253.1 61%

Endgame

87.0 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5066, 3015, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5066, 3015, 247

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

140.4 64%

Endgame

45.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score419.5pts

Blue projected score226.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193
Score range: 183–464
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 246.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.8Season APEX674.6

76.5Auto32.7

253.1Teleop140.4

87Endgame45.1

29Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	41
teleop	143	114
endgame	29	7
foul	0	0
total	227	162

Result

Final score

227 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 128.6 pts

Match videos

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