Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

414.24 – 237.72

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

280 – 398

Prediction missed · off by 147.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.6 ±9.3

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 194.67Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 22.24Rank 19Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 197.33Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 770 ±8.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX -9.39Rank 30Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 121.72Rank 8Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 125.39Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 3668, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8280, 3668, 3641

Auto

76.1 18%

Teleop

237.1 57%

Endgame

99.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3175, 1506, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.7 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3175, 1506, 4391

Auto

41.4 17%

Teleop

139.4 59%

Endgame

56.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score414.2pts

Blue projected score237.7pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 176.5
Score range: 195–457
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 240.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.6Season APEX770

76.1Auto41.4

237.1Teleop139.4

99.8Endgame56.7

30Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	87
teleop	159	212
endgame	54	99
foul	0	0
total	280	398

Result

Final score

280 – 398

Prediction missed · off by 147.3 pts

Match videos

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