Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.35 – 220.94

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±10.5

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 110.96Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1250Gator-Bots

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 37.56Rank 13Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 134.83Rank 27Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.8 ±9.9

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 48.5Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 21.29Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 151.15Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1188, 1250, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1188, 1250, 1701

Auto

61.3 22%

Teleop

155.2 55%

Endgame

64.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1076, 6570, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1076, 6570, 9245

Auto

38.0 17%

Teleop

110.4 50%

Endgame

72.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score283.4pts

Blue projected score220.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.4
Score range: 177–327
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 245.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.9Season APEX509.8

61.3Auto38

155.2Teleop110.4

64.9Endgame72.3

41Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	59
teleop	68	99
endgame	87	26
foul	0	15
total	191	199

Result

Final score

191 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts

Match videos

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