Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.28 – 171.88

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

475 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 112.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.9 ±9.5

2620Titans

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 31.68Rank 24Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 156.36Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 183.24Rank 3Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.8 ±9.9

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 68.6Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 105.36Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX -2.08Rank 21Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2620, 503, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2620, 503, 3707

Auto

62.1 17%

Teleop

194.4 53%

Endgame

108.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3414, 1684, 5708

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.9 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3414, 1684, 5708

Auto

40.3 23%

Teleop

97.2 56%

Endgame

34.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score371.3pts

Blue projected score171.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.4
Score range: 129–414
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 768 vs event baseline 241.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.9Season APEX591.8

62.1Auto40.3

194.4Teleop97.2

108.7Endgame34.9

120Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	79
teleop	205	152
endgame	195	47
foul	0	15
total	475	293

Result

Final score

475 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 112.4 pts

Match videos

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