Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.84 – 184.58

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

505 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 981.1 ±8.7

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 46.02Rank 34Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 157.31Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 151.51Rank 2Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.2 ±11.2

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 65.87Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 24.02Rank 23Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 94.69Rank 12Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 548, 5460, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 548, 5460, 7769

Auto

57.1 17%

Teleop

188.9 55%

Endgame

98.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5066, 5695, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5066, 5695, 247

Auto

34.9 19%

Teleop

110.5 61%

Endgame

34.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score354.8pts

Blue projected score184.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.3
Score range: 142–398
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 705 vs event baseline 238.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

981.1Season APEX436.2

57.1Auto34.9

188.9Teleop110.5

98.6Endgame34.3

95Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	33
teleop	322	106
endgame	84	56
foul	0	5
total	505	200

Result

Final score

505 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 pts

Match videos

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