Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

422.55 – 433.95

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 285

Prediction missed · off by 130.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.2 ±8.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 74.83Rank 33Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 163.4Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 184.32Rank 3Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 981.1 ±8.7

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 65.24Rank 34Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 185.13Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 183.58Rank 2Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1502, 503, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1502, 503, 3707

Auto

75.3 19%

Teleop

198.1 49%

Endgame

130.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 548, 5460, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

434 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 548, 5460, 7769

Auto

81.9 20%

Teleop

237.4 58%

Endgame

92.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score422.6pts

Blue projected score434pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.4
Score range: 378–479
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 596 vs event baseline 251.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.2Season APEX981.1

75.3Auto81.9

198.1Teleop237.4

130.9Endgame92.7

82Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	136
teleop	180	123
endgame	37	26
foul	5	0
total	311	285

Result

Final score

311 – 285

Prediction missed · off by 130.3 pts

Match videos

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