Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

420.59 – 378.55

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

486 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 981.1 ±8.7

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 60.75Rank 34Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 180.81Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 179.03Rank 2Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.8 ±9.9

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 172.92Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 36.07Rank 20Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 169.56Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 548, 5460, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 548, 5460, 7769

Auto

74.8 19%

Teleop

247.6 62%

Endgame

78.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8280, 6081, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8280, 6081, 3641

Auto

71.3 19%

Teleop

229.3 61%

Endgame

75.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score420.6pts

Blue projected score378.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42
Score range: 334–466
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 811 vs event baseline 248.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

981.1Season APEX545.8

74.8Auto71.3

247.6Teleop229.3

78.4Endgame75.9

57Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	118
teleop	196	140
endgame	149	62
foul	30	5
total	486	325

Result

Final score

486 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 pts

Match videos

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