Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

296.27 – 460.79

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 128.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 770 ±8.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 13.03Rank 30Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 136.83Rank 8Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 146.41Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.2 ±8.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 91.46Rank 33Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 172.93Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 196.4Rank 3Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 1506, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.3 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3175, 1506, 4391

Auto

57.0 19%

Teleop

165.5 56%

Endgame

73.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 503, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.8 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1502, 503, 3707

Auto

64.8 15%

Teleop

227.4 51%

Endgame

154.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score296.3pts

Blue projected score460.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.5
Score range: 252–505
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 246.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

770Season APEX597.2

57Auto64.8

165.5Teleop227.4

73.7Endgame154.3

4Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	108
teleop	190	104
endgame	130	55
foul	5	30
total	390	297

Result

Final score

390 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 128.8 pts

Match videos

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