Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.08 – 216.4

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 981.1 ±8.7

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 62.04Rank 34Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 181.53Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 177.51Rank 2Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.8 ±9.9

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 43.03Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 19.56Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 153.81Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 548, 5460, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 548, 5460, 7769

Auto

83.4 20%

Teleop

244.8 60%

Endgame

81.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1076, 6570, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.4 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1076, 6570, 9245

Auto

42.2 20%

Teleop

109.1 51%

Endgame

60.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score421.1pts

Blue projected score216.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.7
Score range: 172–465
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 245.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

981.1Season APEX509.8

83.4Auto42.2

244.8Teleop109.1

81.6Endgame60.8

50Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	43
teleop	255	84
endgame	69	19
foul	45	0
total	419	146

Result

Final score

419 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Match videos

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