Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.97 – 223.81

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 84.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 555.1 ±9.5

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 81.43Rank 3Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 81.14Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 61.4Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.8 ±9.3

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 81.14Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 83.97Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 58.7Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3707, 6570, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

224 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3707, 6570, 503

Auto

30.9 14%

Teleop

131.8 59%

Endgame

61.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8179, 5066, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8179, 5066, 9245

Auto

12.4 6%

Teleop

140.1 63%

Endgame

71.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score224pts

Blue projected score223.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.2
Score range: 187–261
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 616 vs event baseline 206.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

555.1Season APEX551.8

30.9Auto12.4

131.8Teleop140.1

61.2Endgame71.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	38
teleop	172	197
endgame	145	42
foul	5	0
total	339	277

Result

Final score

339 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 84.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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