Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.14 – 188.33

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.2 ±11.2

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 52.36Rank 5Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 19.03Rank 19Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 162.75Rank 3Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.4 ±11.2

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 102.16Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 19.89Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 66.28Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 66, 3668, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 66, 3668, 3707

Auto

32.3 14%

Teleop

137.5 60%

Endgame

61.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1188, 11505, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1188, 11505, 3414

Auto

59.1 30%

Teleop

80.8 41%

Endgame

58.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score234.1pts

Blue projected score188.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 142–280
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 255.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.2Season APEX439.4

32.3Auto59.1

137.5Teleop80.8

61.2Endgame58.5

49Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	68
teleop	152	115
endgame	75	61
foul	0	0
total	285	244

Result

Final score

285 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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