Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

308.6 – 390.67

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

284 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529 ±10.5

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 178.62Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 110.52Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 19.46Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 669.8 ±9.9

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 41.49Rank 10Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 176.65Rank 2Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 172.53Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5460, 8179, 6570

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5460, 8179, 6570

Auto

41.5 14%

Teleop

183.0 62%

Endgame

72.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7790, 7769, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.7 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7790, 7769, 8280

Auto

75.0 19%

Teleop

221.7 56%

Endgame

98.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score308.6pts

Blue projected score390.7pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.1
Score range: 263–437
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 255.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529Season APEX669.8

41.5Auto75

183Teleop221.7

72.2Endgame98.1

88Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	60
teleop	152	233
endgame	120	101
foul	0	0
total	284	394

Result

Final score

284 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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