Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.45 – 137.46

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 132.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.1 ±9.3

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 87.6Rank 12Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 148.54Rank 8Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 30.31Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.2 ±11.1

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX -14.98Rank 35Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 163.49Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5090TorqueNados

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX -11.05Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 247, 1506, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.5 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 247, 1506, 1076

Auto

40.5 16%

Teleop

144.1 56%

Endgame

74.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7196, 4391, 5090

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7196, 4391, 5090

Auto

40.7 31%

Teleop

72.4 55%

Endgame

18.2 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score266.5pts

Blue projected score137.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129
Score range: 91–312
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 255.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.1Season APEX420.2

40.5Auto40.7

144.1Teleop72.4

74.1Endgame18.2

37Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	3
teleop	74	13
endgame	15	7
foul	0	0
total	116	23

Result

Final score

116 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 132.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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