Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.45 – 273.77

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 139.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.6 ±9.3

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX -11.45Rank 30Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 137.46Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 43.44Rank 8Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 745.8 ±9.9

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 84.73Rank 31Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 73.77Rank 29Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 115.27Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 8179, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3175, 8179, 1506

Auto

13.1 8%

Teleop

88.6 51%

Endgame

71.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3015, 11387, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3015, 11387, 3414

Auto

61.3 23%

Teleop

137.9 51%

Endgame

69.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.76 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score169.5pts

Blue projected score273.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.3
Score range: 128–315
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 225.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.6Season APEX745.8

13.1Auto61.3

88.6Teleop137.9

71.9Endgame69

117Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	40
teleop	152	20
endgame	63	1
foul	0	0
total	235	61

Result

Final score

235 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 139.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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