Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.23 – 80.78

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

513 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 225.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.3 ±10.2

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 135.22Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 99.06Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 27.95Rank 5Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.3 ±9.9

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 7.73Rank 34Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 28.08Rank 29Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 44.97Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 503, 66

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8280, 503, 66

Auto

48.4 19%

Teleop

163.7 65%

Endgame

38.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 548, 11387, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 548, 11387, 4391

Auto

-0.8 0%

Teleop

81.2 100%

Endgame

-5.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score262.2pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.5
Score range: 41–302
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 794 vs event baseline 221.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.3Season APEX691.3

48.4Auto-0.8

163.7Teleop81.2

38.3Endgame-5.6

60Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	68
teleop	310	133
endgame	105	80
foul	0	0
total	513	281

Result

Final score

513 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 225.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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