Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.06 – 172.09

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

279 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 208.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 654.4 ±9.9

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 16.19Rank 29Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 34.09Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 23.78Rank 8Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±10.5

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 84.24Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 53.87Rank 12Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 33.98Rank 10Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11387, 1684, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.1 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11387, 1684, 1506

Auto

4.6 6%

Teleop

44.1 58%

Endgame

27.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9245, 247, 7790

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.1 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9245, 247, 7790

Auto

17.7 11%

Teleop

113.7 68%

Endgame

36.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score74.1pts

Blue projected score172.1pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98
Score range: 36–210
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 664 vs event baseline 209.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

654.4Season APEX463.3

4.6Auto17.7

44.1Teleop113.7

27.9Endgame36.1

139Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	56
teleop	174	217
endgame	56	112
foul	0	0
total	279	385

Result

Final score

279 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 208.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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