Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.96 – 203.86

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

387 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.8 ±10.7

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 8.68Rank 5Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 103.17Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 151.11Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±11

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 73.61Rank 33Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 0.17Rank 32Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 130.08Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 66, 5460, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

263 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 66, 5460, 3641

Auto

32.9 13%

Teleop

126.2 48%

Endgame

102.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 830, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1502, 830, 8179

Auto

36.1 17%

Teleop

151.4 73%

Endgame

19.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score263pts

Blue projected score203.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 166–301
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 212.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.8Season APEX262.6

32.9Auto36.1

126.2Teleop151.4

102.7Endgame19.4

107Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	15
teleop	252	153
endgame	33	62
foul	30	0
total	387	230

Result

Final score

387 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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