Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.13 – 166.06

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

207 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.3 ±11.7

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 64.03Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 56.49Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1250Gator-Bots

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 26.61Rank 13Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.2 ±10.5

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 76.12Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 21.57Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 68.37Rank 21Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 11505, 1250

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9245, 11505, 1250

Auto

15.0 10%

Teleop

98.4 68%

Endgame

30.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8179, 4391, 5708

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8179, 4391, 5708

Auto

36.7 22%

Teleop

97.9 59%

Endgame

31.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score147.1pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.9
Score range: 110–203
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 207.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.3Season APEX476.2

15Auto36.7

98.4Teleop97.9

30.5Endgame31.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	53
teleop	106	199
endgame	53	52
foul	0	0
total	207	304

Result

Final score

207 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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