Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.05 – 281.24

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.9 ±11

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX -28.38Rank 32Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 57.43Rank 15Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 53Rank 12Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.2 ±10.7

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 115.72Rank 11Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 108.09Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 57.43Rank 28Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 830, 1188, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.1 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 830, 1188, 247

Auto

21.6 27%

Teleop

46.3 58%

Endgame

11.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5066, 8280, 11505

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5066, 8280, 11505

Auto

60.2 21%

Teleop

171.0 60%

Endgame

52.5 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score82.1pts

Blue projected score281.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199.2
Score range: 45–318
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 204.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.9Season APEX469.2

21.6Auto60.2

46.3Teleop171

11.9Endgame52.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	55
teleop	72	138
endgame	41	60
foul	0	0
total	128	253

Result

Final score

128 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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