Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.28 – 376.27

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.3 ±9.3

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 111.12Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 150.72Rank 8Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 165.44Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.2 ±8.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 56.46Rank 33Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 149.91Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 169.9Rank 3Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 1506, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8179, 1506, 4391

Auto

58.8 14%

Teleop

254.7 60%

Endgame

108.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 503, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1502, 503, 3707

Auto

69.6 19%

Teleop

187.4 52%

Endgame

106.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score427.3pts

Blue projected score376.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51
Score range: 330–473
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 254.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

638.3Season APEX597.2

58.8Auto69.6

254.7Teleop187.4

108.9Endgame106.2

35Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	58
teleop	189	135
endgame	160	17
foul	0	0
total	402	210

Result

Final score

402 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 pts

Match videos

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