Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

315.06 – 400.53

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

481 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 162.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 770 ±8.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 19.92Rank 30Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 141.67Rank 8Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 153.47Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.2 ±8.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 66.55Rank 33Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 156.52Rank 7Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 177.46Rank 3Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 1506, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.1 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3175, 1506, 4391

Auto

60.1 19%

Teleop

169.1 54%

Endgame

84.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 503, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1502, 503, 3707

Auto

77.9 20%

Teleop

194.6 51%

Endgame

112.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score315.1pts

Blue projected score400.5pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.5
Score range: 270–446
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 723 vs event baseline 252.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

770Season APEX597.2

60.1Auto77.9

169.1Teleop194.6

84.3Endgame112.3

8Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	26
teleop	295	142
endgame	106	74
foul	0	0
total	481	242

Result

Final score

481 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 162.2 pts

Match videos

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