FIM District West Michigan Event presented by Grand Valley State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.63 – 217.22

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 61.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.1 ±10.5

107Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 30.58Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 45.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 71.44Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.9 ±12.7

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 109.47Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 18.22Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4003TriSonics

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 89.53Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 107, 244, 3357

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 107, 244, 3357

Auto

32.5 22%

Teleop

71.3 49%

Endgame

43.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 74, 5610, 4003

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 74, 5610, 4003

Auto

33.8 16%

Teleop

117.4 55%

Endgame

61.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.6pts

Blue projected score217.2pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.6
Score range: 115–250
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.1Season APEX277.9

32.5Auto33.8

71.3Teleop117.4

43.1Endgame61.4

29Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	60
teleop	66	26
endgame	58	14
foul	0	0
total	153	100

Result

Final score

153 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 61.3 pts

Match videos

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