Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
268.32 – 273.85
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
317 – 309
Prediction missed · off by 41.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 43.48Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 91.75Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 133.09Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±11
Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 90.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 67.18Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 115.82Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4680, 85, 2054
85
/ 100 compatProjected
268.3 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 4680, 85, 2054
Auto
51.6 19%
Teleop
150.9 57%
Endgame
64.0 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6753, 6877, 7054
83
/ 100 compatProjected
273.9 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 6753, 6877, 7054
Auto
44.9 17%
Teleop
158.9 60%
Endgame
59.6 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.75
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score268.3pts
Blue projected score273.9pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -5.5
- Score range
- 235–307
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 626 vs event baseline 183.9.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
450.2Season APEX344.4
51.6Auto44.9
150.9Teleop158.9
64Endgame59.6
90Consistency65
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 45 | 30 |
| teleop | 189 | 163 |
| endgame | 83 | 116 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 317 | 309 |
Result
Final score
317 – 309
Prediction missed · off by 41.9 pts
Match videos
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