FIM District West Michigan Event presented by Grand Valley State University

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.69 – 201.79

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.2 ±11.1

4003TriSonics

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 101.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 138.5Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7195Twin River Robotics

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 85.15Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270 ±12.7

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 23.99Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 112.63Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6877Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 65.17Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4003, 2054, 7195

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4003, 2054, 7195

Auto

65.1 20%

Teleop

178.9 55%

Endgame

80.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5610, 74, 6877

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5610, 74, 6877

Auto

35.6 18%

Teleop

115.2 58%

Endgame

48.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score324.7pts

Blue projected score201.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.9
Score range: 169–358
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 184.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.2Season APEX270

65.1Auto35.6

178.9Teleop115.2

80Endgame48.2

94Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	38
teleop	132	110
endgame	71	51
foul	0	0
total	221	199

Result

Final score

221 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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