FIM District West Michigan Event presented by Grand Valley State University

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.04 – 174.07

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406 ±10.5

5623Robotic Rams

Season APEX 80Event APEX 28.83Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 77.97Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 64.24Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.5 ±13.3

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 120.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11522Union HS

Season APEX 79.9Event APEX 34.62Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 18.84Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5623, 3357, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

171 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5623, 3357, 2619

Auto

34.9 24%

Teleop

82.0 56%

Endgame

29.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 74, 11522, 3425

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 74, 11522, 3425

Auto

24.8 16%

Teleop

74.1 48%

Endgame

54.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171pts

Blue projected score174.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3
Score range: 138–207
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 185.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406Season APEX261.5

34.9Auto24.8

82Teleop74.1

29.3Endgame54.1

52Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	34
teleop	77	79
endgame	23	64
foul	0	15
total	152	192

Result

Final score

152 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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