FIM District West Michigan Event presented by Grand Valley State University

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.25 – 174.91

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488.6 ±11.6

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 147.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 82.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 111.44Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.3 ±11.7

5470The Cowpunchers

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 25.54Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 106.48Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 42.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1918, 6114, 74

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1918, 6114, 74

Auto

50.9 15%

Teleop

202.7 60%

Endgame

85.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5470, 7054, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5470, 7054, 288

Auto

34.1 21%

Teleop

73.8 45%

Endgame

54.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score341.3pts

Blue projected score174.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.3
Score range: 142–374
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488.6Season APEX310.3

50.9Auto34.1

202.7Teleop73.8

85.7Endgame54.7

100Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	28
teleop	240	113
endgame	114	16
foul	0	0
total	397	157

Result

Final score

397 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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