FIM District West Michigan Event presented by Grand Valley State University

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.27 – 236.01

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.6 ±11.7

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX -11.86Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 75.58Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6877Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 82.55Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±11.6

5623Robotic Rams

Season APEX 80Event APEX 39.53Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 84.41Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

74Team CHAOS

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 112.07Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9721, 2619, 6877

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9721, 2619, 6877

Auto

27.4 20%

Teleop

80.3 58%

Endgame

31.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5623, 6753, 74

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5623, 6753, 74

Auto

17.0 8%

Teleop

158.1 72%

Endgame

45.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.3pts

Blue projected score236pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.7
Score range: 113–269
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 184.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.6Season APEX329.5

27.4Auto17

80.3Teleop158.1

31.3Endgame45.2

101Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	75	139
endgame	23	55
foul	0	0
total	124	226

Result

Final score

124 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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