FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.19 – 98.92

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±9.8

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 16.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 72.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 60.88Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.9 ±12.7

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 26.29Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 32.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 40.3Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7598, 3688, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 3688, 1711

Auto

27.1 18%

Teleop

81.3 54%

Endgame

41.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7155, 6087, 5110

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7155, 6087, 5110

Auto

18.8 19%

Teleop

49.1 51%

Endgame

29.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.2pts

Blue projected score98.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.3
Score range: 79–169
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 110.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.1Season APEX144.9

27.1Auto18.8

81.3Teleop49.1

41.2Endgame29.1

8Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	84	29
endgame	43	32
foul	0	0
total	151	80

Result

Final score

151 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Match videos

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