FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.88 – 191.56

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.7 ±11.6

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 11.42Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 84.76Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 72.7Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±9.3

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 26.25Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 91.64Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 73.67Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6122, 7790, 3767

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6122, 7790, 3767

Auto

33.3 20%

Teleop

100.2 60%

Endgame

34.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 5534, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 5534, 4398

Auto

37.1 20%

Teleop

107.8 57%

Endgame

44.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.9pts

Blue projected score191.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.7
Score range: 149–212
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.7Season APEX467.6

33.3Auto37.1

100.2Teleop107.8

34.5Endgame44.4

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	55
teleop	102	106
endgame	67	45
foul	0	0
total	200	206

Result

Final score

200 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Match videos

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