FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.69 – 147.59

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±9.9

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 123.73Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 29.91Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 149.05Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±9.8

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 15.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 71.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 60.54Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 10614, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 10614, 5193

Auto

53.1 18%

Teleop

185.2 61%

Endgame

63.3 21%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 3688, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 3688, 1711

Auto

28.1 19%

Teleop

81.9 55%

Endgame

38.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302.7pts

Blue projected score147.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.1
Score range: 128–323
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.5Season APEX343.1

53.1Auto28.1

185.2Teleop81.9

63.3Endgame38

1Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	25
teleop	133	74
endgame	32	56
foul	15	0
total	249	155

Result

Final score

249 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Match videos

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