FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.15 – 103.23

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.1 ±12.7

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 4.4Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 20.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 11.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.2 ±11.7

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 44.08Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 42.31Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 16.84Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10181, 7855, 5560

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10181, 7855, 5560

Auto

7.5 23%

Teleop

15.1 47%

Endgame

9.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3602, 3618, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3602, 3618, 4835

Auto

15.6 15%

Teleop

66.3 65%

Endgame

20.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.2pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.1
Score range: 16–123
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 108.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.1Season APEX278.2

7.5Auto15.6

15.1Teleop66.3

9.8Endgame20.7

14Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	17	51
endgame	19	40
foul	0	15
total	60	124

Result

Final score

60 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Match videos

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