FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.56 – 109.18

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±9.3

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 22.18Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 86.88Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 69.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±12.7

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 32.58Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 54.15Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 22.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 5534, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 5534, 4398

Auto

30.6 17%

Teleop

102.1 58%

Endgame

42.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5509, 7782, 4983

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 7782, 4983

Auto

20.5 19%

Teleop

57.2 54%

Endgame

28.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.6pts

Blue projected score109.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.4
Score range: 90–198
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.6Season APEX194.4

30.6Auto20.5

102.1Teleop57.2

42.8Endgame28.5

25Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	25
teleop	128	34
endgame	51	18
foul	0	0
total	241	77

Result

Final score

241 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Match videos

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