FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.66 – 146.41

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.2 ±11.7

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 44.84Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 44.03Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 17.79Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±9.8

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 15.47Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 70.85Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 60.09Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3602, 3618, 6569

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3602, 3618, 6569

Auto

19.4 18%

Teleop

62.2 57%

Endgame

26.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 3688, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 3688, 1711

Auto

32.0 22%

Teleop

79.5 54%

Endgame

35.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.7pts

Blue projected score146.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.7
Score range: 88–165
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 107.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.2Season APEX343.1

19.4Auto32

62.2Teleop79.5

26.9Endgame35.6

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	52	94
endgame	15	47
foul	15	0
total	93	157

Result

Final score

93 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Match videos

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