FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.44 – 40.09

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±9.9

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 122.65Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 29.96Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 147.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.1 ±12.7

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 5.74Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 21.74Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 12.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 10614, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 10614, 5193

Auto

50.8 17%

Teleop

185.3 62%

Endgame

62.9 21%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10181, 7855, 5560

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10181, 7855, 5560

Auto

4.6 13%

Teleop

18.9 54%

Endgame

11.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score300.4pts

Blue projected score40.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 260.4
Score range: 21–319
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.5Season APEX137.1

50.8Auto4.6

185.3Teleop18.9

62.9Endgame11.8

9Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	18
teleop	189	5
endgame	63	0
foul	0	0
total	314	23

Result

Final score

314 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Match videos

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