FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.13 – 152.17

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±9.3

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 29.38Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 95.1Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 76.65Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±9.8

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 17.29Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 73.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 61.56Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 5534, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 5534, 4398

Auto

42.6 21%

Teleop

114.0 57%

Endgame

43.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 3688, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 3688, 1711

Auto

26.1 17%

Teleop

84.2 55%

Endgame

42.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.1pts

Blue projected score152.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49
Score range: 132–221
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 113.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.6Season APEX343.1

42.6Auto26.1

114Teleop84.2

43Endgame42.1

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	21
teleop	125	57
endgame	46	50
foul	0	0
total	211	128

Result

Final score

211 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Match videos

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