FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.78 – 107.08

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.7 ±11.6

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 13.14Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 86.46Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 74.18Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.2 ±11.7

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 45.28Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 43.12Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 18.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6122, 7790, 3767

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6122, 7790, 3767

Auto

32.6 19%

Teleop

100.5 58%

Endgame

39.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3602, 3618, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3602, 3618, 4835

Auto

15.7 15%

Teleop

64.1 62%

Endgame

24.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.8pts

Blue projected score107.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.7
Score range: 87–194
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 110.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.7Season APEX278.2

32.6Auto15.7

100.5Teleop64.1

39.8Endgame24

15Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	22
teleop	89	49
endgame	30	29
foul	0	15
total	149	115

Result

Final score

149 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Match videos

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